Nuclear Weapons

The Manhattan Project: Where It Began

In 1942, the United States launched the most expensive weapons program in history. The Manhattan Project employed 125,000 people across 30 secret sites, cost $2 billion in 1945 dollars (~$30 billion today), and produced the two atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945.

The project was conducted in total secrecy. Congress appropriated the funds without knowing what they were for. Vice President Truman didn’t learn about the bomb until he became president. The workers at Oak Ridge, Tennessee, didn’t know they were enriching uranium. This pattern — nuclear weapons decisions made in secrecy, outside democratic oversight — has continued for 80 years.

The Bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

On August 6, 1945, the B-29 Enola Gay dropped “Little Boy” on Hiroshima, killing an estimated80,000 people instantly and up to 140,000 by year’s end. Three days later, “Fat Man” was dropped on Nagasaki, killing 40,000 instantly and up to 80,000 total. The vast majority of victims were civilians.

The necessity of the bombings remains one of history’s most contested questions. Many senior military leaders at the time — including Eisenhower, MacArthur, Leahy, and Arnold — stated or implied the bombs were unnecessary for Japan’s surrender. Declassified documents suggest Japan was seeking surrender terms before the bombings, and that the Soviet declaration of war on August 8 may have been the decisive factor.

The Arms Race: Building Armageddon

After the Soviet Union tested its first atomic bomb in 1949, the nuclear arms race began in earnest. The US arsenal grew at a staggering pace:

• 1945: 2 weapons (the only two ever used in war)
• 1950: 299 weapons
• 1955: 2,422 weapons
• 1960: 18,638 weapons
• 1967: 31,255 weapons (all-time peak)
• 1985: 23,368 weapons
• 2000: 10,577 weapons
• 2010: 5,066 weapons
• 2024: ~5,500 weapons (of which ~1,700 deployed)

At peak, the combined US and Soviet arsenals held enough nuclear weapons to destroy every major city on Earth multiple times over — a concept known as “overkill.” The explosive yield of the US arsenal alone was equivalent to roughly 1.4 million Hiroshima bombs.

The Nuclear Triad: Three Ways to End the World

Since the 1960s, US nuclear strategy has rested on the “triad” — three independent delivery systems designed to ensure that no enemy first strike could eliminate America’s ability to retaliate. The logic of “mutually assured destruction” (MAD) requires that retaliation is always possible.

The $2 Trillion Modernization

The United States is currently undertaking a complete overhaul of its nuclear arsenal — every warhead, every missile, every bomber, every submarine, every command-and-control system. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the 30-year cost at $1.5–2 trillion, or roughly $50–67 billion per year.

This is not maintenance. This is building an entirely new nuclear arsenal from scratch while maintaining the old one. Every leg of the triad is being replaced simultaneously, creating what arms control experts call the most ambitious — and expensive — nuclear weapons program since the Cold War.

Close Calls: When the System Almost Failed

Nuclear deterrence theory assumes rational actors, perfect information, and flawless systems. The historical record shows none of these assumptions hold. The world has come terrifyingly close to nuclear war multiple times — often due to technical glitches, miscommunication, or individual human judgment under pressure.

Nuclear Testing: 1,054 Explosions

Between 1945 and 1992, the United States conducted 1,054 nuclear tests — more than any other nation. These tests were conducted in the Pacific (primarily the Marshall Islands), the Nevada desert, Alaska, Colorado, Mississippi, and New Mexico. The human and environmental costs are staggering and ongoing.

The Total Bill: $5.5–10+ Trillion

The total cost of America’s nuclear weapons program — from the Manhattan Project through the current modernization — is almost impossible to calculate precisely. The Brookings Institution’s landmark 1998 study estimated $5.5 trillion through 1996 (in 1996 dollars). Adjusted for inflation and adding the subsequent three decades of maintenance, dismantlement, cleanup, and the new modernization program, the total easily exceeds $10 trillion.

What $10 Trillion Could Have Built

The opportunity cost of nuclear weapons spending is staggering. With $10 trillion, the United States could have:

• Eliminated student loan debt 6 times over ($1.77T outstanding)
• Funded universal pre-K for 100+ years
• Rebuilt every bridge in America 40 times ($250B estimated need)
• Provided clean water to every person on Earth for decades ($150B/year)
• Funded NASA at current levels for 370 years
• Cured diseases: the entire NIH budget since its founding is roughly $1 trillion
• Paid off 1/3 of the national debt

Environmental Devastation

The nuclear weapons complex has left a trail of environmental destruction across the United States:

• Hanford, Washington: The most contaminated site in the Western Hemisphere. 56 million gallons of radioactive waste in aging tanks, some of which are leaking into the Columbia River. Cleanup estimated at $300–600 billion over 50+ years.
• Rocky Flats, Colorado: Plutonium production plant that experienced multiple fires and contamination incidents. Now a “wildlife refuge” — but plutonium is still in the soil. Workers and neighboring communities suffered elevated cancer rates.
• Savannah River, South Carolina: Produced plutonium and tritium for decades. Contaminated groundwater with tritium and other radioactive materials. 35 million gallons of radioactive waste remain on-site.
• Oak Ridge, Tennessee: Mercury and uranium contamination from Manhattan Project-era operations. East Fork Poplar Creek remains contaminated. Cleanup is ongoing decades later.
• Idaho National Laboratory: Stored and reprocessed nuclear waste for decades. Contamination of the Snake River Plain Aquifer — the sole water source for much of southern Idaho — remains a concern.

Current Nuclear Doctrine

US nuclear doctrine is outlined in the classified Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), most recently updated in 2022. Key elements include:

• No First Use: The US has not adopted a no-first-use policy. Current doctrine reserves the right to use nuclear weapons first in “extreme circumstances,” including in response to non-nuclear attacks.
• Launch on Warning: US ICBMs can be launched within minutes of detecting incoming missiles — before enemy warheads arrive. This “use them or lose them” posture creates enormous pressure to launch quickly and leaves almost no time for verification.
• Sole Presidential Authority: The president alone decides. There is no constitutional requirement for any other approval.
• Flexible Response: Doctrine includes options for “limited” nuclear strikes — the idea that nuclear war can be fought in a controlled way. Most experts consider this a dangerous fantasy.
• Extended Deterrence: The US nuclear umbrella covers NATO allies, Japan, South Korea, and Australia. This means the US has committed to starting nuclear war on behalf of other nations.

Global Nuclear Arsenal (2024)

Nine countries possess nuclear weapons. The US and Russia hold approximately 90% of the world’s total:

• Russia: ~6,257 warheads (largest arsenal)
• United States: ~5,500 warheads
• China: ~500 warheads (rapidly expanding)
• France: ~290 warheads
• United Kingdom: ~225 warheads
• Pakistan: ~170 warheads
• India: ~172 warheads
• Israel: ~90 warheads (undeclared)
• North Korea: ~50 warheads (estimated)

Total global arsenal: approximately 12,500 warheads. A fraction of this is enough to cause a “nuclear winter” that could end agriculture worldwide and kill billions through starvation.

Arms Control: Unraveling

The arms control framework that reduced arsenals from Cold War peaks is collapsing:

• ABM Treaty (1972): US withdrew in 2002 under George W. Bush. This treaty had limited missile defense systems — its collapse enabled a new arms race in hypersonic weapons and missile defense.
• INF Treaty (1987): US withdrew in 2019 under Trump, citing Russian violations. This treaty had banned intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe.
• Open Skies Treaty (2002): US withdrew in 2020. Russia followed. This treaty had allowed mutual aerial surveillance flights to build confidence.
• New START (2010): The last remaining US-Russia nuclear arms control treaty. Limits deployed strategic warheads to 1,550 each. Russia suspended participation in 2023. The treaty expires in 2026 with no successor negotiated.
• JCPOA / Iran Deal (2015): US withdrew in 2018. Iran subsequently expanded uranium enrichment beyond agreed limits.

For the first time since the 1960s, there may soon be no limits on the nuclear arsenals of the world’s two largest nuclear powers. The new arms race is already underway.

The Libertarian Case Against the Nuclear State

The nuclear weapons complex represents the most extreme concentration of unchecked government power in American history:

• No democratic oversight: Nuclear weapons policy is made in secret. Congress rubber-stamps funding without meaningful debate. The public has no say in the single most consequential government program.
• Sole launch authority: One person can end civilization. There are no checks, no balances, no appeals. This is the antithesis of constitutional governance.
• Permanent secrecy state: The classification system built for nuclear weapons has metastasized into a secrecy apparatus that shields all military and intelligence activities from scrutiny.
• Captured by contractors: Nuclear weapons are built by private corporations — Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, Bechtel, Honeywell — that lobby for bigger budgets and newer weapons. The Sentinel ICBM cost overrun is not a bug; it is the system working as designed.
• Trillions in opportunity cost: Every dollar spent on nuclear weapons is a dollar taken from taxpayers and denied to productive uses. The $10 trillion spent on nuclear weapons represents the single largest government expenditure in history.
• Environmental destruction: Nuclear weapons production has contaminated vast areas of the American landscape, with cleanup costs in the hundreds of billions — all paid by taxpayers, while the companies that caused the contamination profited.

Sources

• Brookings Institution, Atomic Audit: The Costs and Consequences of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Since 1940 (1998)
• Congressional Budget Office, Projected Costs of U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2023 to 2032 (2023)
• Federation of American Scientists, Nuclear Notebook (2024)
• Arms Control Association, factsheets on nuclear modernization programs
• Government Accountability Office, Sentinel ICBM Nunn-McCurdy breach report (2024)
• Union of Concerned Scientists, nuclear weapons and close calls research
• National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Stockpile Stewardship reports
• Department of Energy, Environmental Management cleanup reports
• Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Doomsday Clock and nuclear risk analysis

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