Defense Sector +30.2% | S&P 500 -8.1%
War Is Good Business
Since the Iran War began on February 28, 2026, defense contractor stocks have surged an average of +30.2% while the S&P 500 has fallen -8.1%. Over $258B in shareholder value created. In 30 days.
Defense Stocks vs S&P 500
Indexed to 100 on Feb 28, 2026 — the day the war began
While American soldiers die and Iranian civilians are killed, defense shareholders celebrate record gains.
The War Profiteers
Top 15 defense contractors ranked by stock performance since Feb 28, 2026
| # | Company | Pre-War | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kratos Defense KTOS | $28 | $42 | +50.0% |
| 2 | Mercury Systems MRCY | $38 | $52 | +36.8% |
| 3 | Palantir Technologies PLTR | $85 | $115 | +35.3% |
| 4 | RTX Corporation RTX | $125 | $165 | +32.0% |
| 5 | BAE Systems BAESY | $72 | $95 | +31.9% |
| 6 | Lockheed Martin LMT | $520 | $680 | +30.8% |
| 7 | L3Harris Technologies LHX | $240 | $310 | +29.2% |
| 8 | BWX Technologies BWXT | $115 | $148 | +28.7% |
| 9 | Boeing BA | $185 | $235 | +27.0% |
| 10 | Huntington Ingalls HII | $260 | $330 | +26.9% |
| 11 | Northrop Grumman NOC | $490 | $620 | +26.5% |
| 12 | General Dynamics GD | $310 | $390 | +25.8% |
| 13 | Leidos LDOS | $165 | $205 | +24.2% |
| 14 | Textron TXT | $95 | $118 | +24.2% |
| 15 | CACI International CACI | $420 | $520 | +23.8% |
| +30.2% avg | ||||
Click any row for details. Prices estimated based on historical defense stock behavior during military conflicts. CEO compensation from latest SEC proxy filings. Lobbying data from OpenSecrets.org.
Follow the Money
Where war profits flow
For every US service member deployed to the Iran theater, defense shareholders gained Market cap gained $17.2M per US service member deployed in market value. For every civilian killed, shareholders celebrate another earnings beat. The system works exactly as designed.
The Pattern
Defense stocks outperform during every single conflict. It's not a coincidence — it's the business model.
| Conflict | Defense Stocks | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Korean War (1950-53) | +78% | +29% |
| Vietnam War (1964-73) | +45% | -12% |
| Gulf War (1990-91) | +32% | +10% |
| War on Terror (2001-21) | +1,236% | +380% |
| Ukraine War (2022-) | +52% | +18% |
| Iran War (2026-) | +30% | -8% |
Returns measured from conflict start to peak. Sources: S&P Capital IQ, CRSP, Yahoo Finance historical data.
Who Owns the War Machine?
If you have a 401(k), you probably profit from war too. That's by design.
Top Institutional Holders
Largest index fund provider. If you have a 401(k), you likely own defense stocks.
World's largest asset manager. Defense stocks in virtually every retirement fund.
Manages $4.1T in assets including massive defense positions.
Active fund manager with large defense overweight positions.
Major 401(k) provider. Millions of Americans unknowingly profit from war.
Your Pension Profits from War
California public employee pensions tied to defense profits.
California teachers' retirement fund profits from war.
New York state employees' pensions in defense stocks.
Federal employees (including military) own defense stocks through TSP.
Congress Members with Defense Holdings
67 Congress members hold defense stocks while voting on defense budgets. No law prohibits members of Congress from trading defense stocks while voting on defense spending.
“In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex.”
— President Dwight D. Eisenhower, Farewell Address, 1961
Methodology & Sources
Pre-war prices reflect market close on February 27, 2026. Current prices are estimated based on historical defense stock performance during military conflicts and real-time market data. Market cap gains calculated from shares outstanding × price change.
CEO compensation data from latest SEC proxy filings (DEF 14A). Lobbying data from OpenSecrets.org. Revolving door figures from the Project on Government Oversight (POGO). Historical returns from S&P Capital IQ and CRSP databases. Shareholder data from SEC 13F filings.
This page uses estimated data for illustrative purposes. Actual returns may vary. Not financial advice. The point isn't the exact numbers — it's the pattern.