Analysis
Allies & Enemies
How America Arms Today's Ally and Fights Tomorrow's Enemy
The United States has a pattern so consistent it should be studied in every political science class: identify a useful strongman, arm him to the teeth, overlook his crimes while he serves American interests, then spend trillions fighting him when the relationship sours. Saddam Hussein shook hands with Donald Rumsfeld. Osama bin Laden was funded by CIA money. Manuel Noriega was on the CIA payroll. The Taliban were America's proxy warriors. This isn't conspiracy theory — it's documented history, exposed by congressional investigations, declassified documents, and the participants themselves.
The Five-Step Pattern
Every case follows the same playbook. Once you see the pattern, you can't unsee it:
Identify a Useful Strongman
Find a leader or group who opposes whoever America currently opposes. Ideological alignment is irrelevant — only strategic utility matters.
Arm, Fund, Train
Provide weapons, money, intelligence, and diplomatic cover. Overlook human rights abuses, drug trafficking, or authoritarianism. "He's a son of a bitch, but he's our son of a bitch."
Strategic Realignment
Geopolitics shifts. The former ally is no longer useful, becomes inconvenient, or starts acting independently. Yesterday's freedom fighter becomes today's terrorist.
Demonize
The media campaign begins. The ally's crimes — previously ignored — are now front-page news. Intelligence is cherry-picked or fabricated. The public is prepared for war.
Invade, Sanction, or Overthrow
Military action follows. The cost in lives and treasure dwarfs the original investment. The resulting instability creates new enemies, and the cycle begins again.
Years as Ally vs. Years as Enemy
Aid Given vs. Cost to Fight (Billions $)
The US spent $3.3B arming the Afghan mujahideen. The War on Terror cost $5.8 trillion. Return on investment: -175,657%.
The Case Studies
Iran: The Shah
1953–1979
🤝 The Alliance Phase
In 1953, the CIA and MI6 overthrew Iran's democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh in Operation Ajax. The crime? He nationalized Iran's oil. The US installed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, armed his secret police (SAVAK), and trained them in torture techniques. For 26 years, Iran was America's closest ally in the Middle East.
$28B in military aid and weapons sales to the Shah
💥 The Enemy Phase
In 1979, the Iranian Revolution overthrew the Shah. The new Islamic Republic took 52 American hostages for 444 days. Iran has been America's primary Middle Eastern adversary ever since — 46 years and counting. The US has imposed crushing sanctions, nearly gone to war multiple times, and in 2026 launched strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities.
Decades of sanctions, frozen assets, naval confrontations, and the 2026 strikes
The Lesson: Installing a dictator to protect oil interests created a 46-year adversary and counting.
Saddam Hussein
1980–2003
🤝 The Alliance Phase
During the Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988), the Reagan administration provided Saddam Hussein with intelligence, weapons, agricultural credits (diverted to arms), and diplomatic cover. Donald Rumsfeld personally shook Saddam's hand in 1983. The US knew Saddam was using chemical weapons against Iran and the Kurds — and continued support anyway. The famous photo of Rumsfeld smiling with Saddam remains one of the most damning images in American foreign policy.
$5.1B in credits, intelligence, and dual-use technology
💥 The Enemy Phase
When Saddam invaded Kuwait in 1990, he became America's top enemy overnight. The Gulf War (1991) was followed by 12 years of sanctions that killed an estimated 500,000 Iraqi children. Then came the 2003 invasion based on fabricated WMD intelligence. The Iraq War cost $3 trillion, killed 300,000+ Iraqis, destabilized the entire region, and created ISIS.
$1.1 trillion direct costs; $3T+ total including long-term veteran care and interest
The Lesson: The US armed Saddam against Iran, then spent $3 trillion fighting him and dealing with the aftermath.
Osama bin Laden & the Mujahideen
1979–2011
🤝 The Alliance Phase
Operation Cyclone was the CIA's covert program to arm and fund the Afghan mujahideen fighting the Soviet Union. Between 1979 and 1989, the US funneled $3.3 billion through Pakistan's ISI to various rebel groups — including Arab fighters who would later form al-Qaeda. The CIA provided Stinger missiles, training, and logistics. Osama bin Laden, a wealthy Saudi, was among those who benefited from this pipeline. Zbigniew Brzezinski bragged about "giving the Soviets their Vietnam."
$3.3B in weapons, training, and funding via Operation Cyclone
💥 The Enemy Phase
On September 11, 2001, al-Qaeda killed 2,977 Americans using the organizational infrastructure and combat experience developed during the anti-Soviet jihad. The resulting War on Terror has cost $8 trillion, killed 929,000 people, displaced 38 million, and spanned operations in 85 countries over 24 years. The weapons, training, and ideology the US helped cultivate came back with catastrophic force.
$5.8 trillion in War on Terror costs (Brown University Costs of War Project)
The Lesson: The $3.3B invested in the mujahideen generated the $8 trillion War on Terror — history's worst ROI.
Manuel Noriega
1966–1989
🤝 The Alliance Phase
Manuel Noriega was on the CIA payroll from 1966. He was recruited as an intelligence asset while still a military cadet. As he rose through Panama's ranks, the CIA increased his salary — eventually paying him $200,000/year. He provided intelligence on Cuba, helped funnel arms to the Contras, and allowed the US to use Panama as a base for covert operations. The DEA knew he was trafficking drugs. The CIA didn't care.
$320K+/year CIA salary, plus military aid to Panama
💥 The Enemy Phase
By 1988, Noriega had become inconvenient. He was indicted on drug trafficking charges, and in December 1989, the US invaded Panama in Operation Just Cause — killing an estimated 500-4,000 Panamanians (the US claimed 200 civilian deaths; independent investigators found far more). US troops blasted heavy metal music at the Vatican embassy where Noriega had taken refuge. He surrendered after 10 days and served 17 years in US prison.
$1.5B for Operation Just Cause; 23 US soldiers killed; 500-4,000 Panamanian civilians killed
The Lesson: The CIA paid Noriega for 23 years, overlooked his drug trafficking, then invaded his country to remove him.
The Taliban
1994–2021
🤝 The Alliance Phase
After the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989, the country descended into civil war. Pakistan's ISI — with tacit US approval — helped create and arm the Taliban in 1994 as a stabilizing force. The US initially viewed the Taliban favorably: they were anti-Iranian, anti-communist, and the oil company Unocal was negotiating a pipeline deal through Taliban territory. A Taliban delegation visited Texas in 1997. The US gave $43 million in aid to Afghanistan in May 2001 — just four months before 9/11.
$43M in aid (2001); indirect support through Pakistan ISI
💥 The Enemy Phase
After 9/11, the Taliban refused to hand over bin Laden (they offered to try him in an Islamic court, which the US rejected). The US invaded in October 2001. Twenty years, $2.3 trillion, 2,461 US soldiers killed, and 176,000 total deaths later, the Taliban recaptured Kabul in August 2021 as the US withdrew in chaos. The Taliban now governs Afghanistan with American military equipment left behind — including Black Hawk helicopters and armored vehicles.
$2.3 trillion over 20 years; 2,461 US soldiers; 176,000 total killed
The Lesson: The US tacitly supported Taliban creation, fought them for 20 years, spent $2.3 trillion, and they won anyway.
Muammar Gaddafi
2003–2011
🤝 The Alliance Phase
After decades as a pariah, Gaddafi cut a deal in 2003: he gave up his nuclear weapons program and opened Libya's oil to Western companies. In exchange, sanctions were lifted. Tony Blair visited Tripoli. Condoleezza Rice met Gaddafi. The CIA established a joint intelligence program. Libya became a key partner in the War on Terror, hosting CIA black sites and rendition flights. Gaddafi was rehabilitated — proof that "diplomacy works."
Diplomatic normalization, sanctions relief, intelligence cooperation
💥 The Enemy Phase
In 2011, during the Arab Spring, NATO intervened in Libya's civil war. The US led the bombing campaign that helped rebels capture and brutally kill Gaddafi. Hillary Clinton laughed on camera: "We came, we saw, he died." Libya collapsed into a failed state with open-air slave markets, multiple competing governments, and ongoing civil war. The lesson every dictator learned: giving up your weapons gets you killed.
$2.2B in military operations; Libya became a failed state
The Lesson: Gaddafi gave up his WMDs in exchange for normalized relations. NATO bombed him anyway. North Korea took notes.
Coups Backed vs. Blowback Events by Decade
As coups decreased, blowback increased — the consequences of earlier interventions catching up.
US Arms Sales: To Future Enemies vs. Current Allies ($B)
Who's Next?
If the pattern holds, the question isn't whether a current US ally will become an enemy — it's which one. Consider today's relationships through the lens of history:
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
The US has sold $110B+ in weapons to Saudi Arabia. 15 of the 19 9/11 hijackers were Saudi citizens. Saudi Arabia exports Wahhabist ideology globally, dismembers journalists, and conducts a devastating war in Yemen with American weapons. The alliance is built on oil and arms sales — the same transactional foundation that defined every ally-turned-enemy.
🇵🇰 Pakistan
Pakistan received $33B in US aid since 2001 while sheltering Osama bin Laden (found 1 mile from Pakistan's military academy), supporting the Taliban through the ISI, and proliferating nuclear technology through the A.Q. Khan network. The alliance is one strategic realignment away from becoming the next adversarial relationship.
🇪🇬 Egypt
The US provides $1.3B/year in military aid to Egypt's military dictatorship — making it the second-largest recipient after Israel. The Sisi regime has imprisoned 60,000+ political prisoners, massacred 1,000 protesters at Rabaa, and crushes all dissent. History suggests propping up authoritarian regimes creates eventual blowback.
🇦🇪 UAE
The UAE has received $23B in US weapons, hosts 5,000 US troops, and is America's key Middle Eastern partner. But the UAE also uses American surveillance technology for domestic repression, hired former NSA hackers for Project Raven, and has been accused of war crimes in Yemen and Libya. Sound familiar?
The Economics of Enemy-Making
There's a perverse economic logic to the ally-to-enemy pipeline. Defense contractors profit twice: first from arming the ally, then from fighting the enemy. The same companies that sold weapons to Iraq in the 1980s won contracts to fight Iraq in the 2000s. Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and Boeing don't care which side they're supplying — only that there's a side to supply.
The Numbers Don't Lie
$36.7B
Total aid given to allies who became enemies
$11.5T+
Total cost to fight those same enemies
313x
Average cost multiplier (aid given → cost to fight)
Why It Keeps Happening
Short-Term Thinking
Presidents serve 4-8 years. The consequences of arming a dictator take 10-30 years to materialize. No president has ever been held accountable for creating a future enemy — the blowback always arrives on someone else's watch. Reagan armed the mujahideen; Bush II dealt with al-Qaeda. Carter installed the Shah; Carter also dealt with the hostage crisis — but that was the exception, not the rule.
Institutional Incentives
The CIA needs assets. The Pentagon needs bases. Defense contractors need customers. The State Department needs allies. Every institution in the national security apparatus benefits from relationships with strongmen — and none bears the cost when those relationships collapse. The benefits are concentrated and immediate; the costs are diffuse and delayed.
Historical Amnesia
Americans don't learn this history. The Rumsfeld-Saddam handshake isn't in most textbooks. Operation Cyclone isn't taught in high schools. The CIA-Noriega relationship isn't common knowledge. Without historical memory, the public can't recognize the pattern — and each new alliance with a dictator seems like a fresh, reasonable decision rather than the latest iteration of a proven failure.
The “Enemy of My Enemy” Fallacy
Every one of these alliances was justified by the same logic: the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Saddam fights Iran? Arm him. Mujahideen fight the Soviets? Fund them. Noriega opposes the Sandinistas? Pay him. The logic is seductive and consistently catastrophic. The enemy of your enemy is not your friend — he's someone who happens to share one adversary right now.
“He may be a son of a bitch, but he's our son of a bitch.”— Attributed to FDR (about Nicaraguan dictator Anastasio Somoza), a phrase that has defined US foreign policy for 80 years
The Cycle Continues
As of 2025, the United States maintains military partnerships with 73 countries, sells weapons to 96 nations, and operates in the shadows through CIA relationships that remain classified. Somewhere in that web of alliances is the next Saddam, the next bin Laden, the next Noriega — a useful asset today who will become tomorrow's justification for a trillion-dollar war.
The pattern is not a bug. It's a feature of a system designed to sustain perpetual conflict. Defense contractors need enemies. Intelligence agencies need assets. Politicians need threats. And the cycle of arming allies who become enemies provides all three — at a cost measured in trillions of dollars and millions of lives.
We armed them. We trained them. We looked the other way. And then we acted surprised when they turned those weapons on us. Every single time.
Sources
• Operation Ajax: CIA declassified documents (2013); Kinzer, Stephen. All the Shah's Men
• Saddam-US relationship: National Security Archive, George Washington University; Rumsfeld-Saddam meeting cables (declassified)
• Operation Cyclone: Coll, Steve. Ghost Wars; Congressional Research Service reports on Afghan aid
• Noriega-CIA: Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Subcommittee on Terrorism, Narcotics, and International Operations (Kerry Committee, 1989)
• Taliban origins: Rashid, Ahmed. Taliban; 9/11 Commission Report
• Libya intervention: House Foreign Affairs Committee; UK Parliament Libya Report (2016)
• War on Terror costs: Brown University Costs of War Project (2023)
• Arms sales data: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI); Defense Security Cooperation Agency