The Syria Intervention
2014–Present · Red Lines, ISIS, and Another Forever War
$14.3 billion spent. A red line drawn and erased. A CIA proxy war where US-armed groups fought each other. An air campaign that dropped 34,000+ bombs on ISIS. Kurdish allies who lost 11,000 fighters then were abandoned to Turkey. And ~900 US troops still there, with no mission, no authorization, and no exit. Half a million Syrians dead. Thirteen million displaced. Nobody won.
The Cost: $14.3 Billion and Counting
Syria represents the new model of American warfare: relatively cheap in dollars, catastrophic in consequences, and indefinite in duration. No declaration of war, no defined mission, no exit criteria. Just an open-ended commitment justified by a 2001 law passed to fight an entirely different enemy.
| Category | Amount |
|---|---|
| Operation Inherent Resolve (Syria portion) | $8.5B |
| Train & Equip Programs | $2.2B |
| SDF Support & Ground Operations | $2.1B |
| Humanitarian Aid | $1.5B |
Timeline: Red Lines to Forever War
Syrian Civil War Begins
Arab Spring protests against Assad are met with military force. Peaceful protests become armed rebellion. The conflict rapidly fragments: Assad regime, Free Syrian Army, jihadist groups, Kurdish forces, and eventually ISIS all compete for territory.
Obama's Red Line
President Obama declares that the use of chemical weapons would be a "red line" that would change his "calculus" on intervention. It is one of the most consequential off-the-cuff remarks in modern foreign policy — a commitment the US will fail to enforce.
Ghouta Chemical Attack
Assad regime launches a sarin gas attack on the Damascus suburb of Ghouta, killing 1,400+ civilians. The red line is crossed. Obama prepares military strikes — then pivots to seeking Congressional authorization (which he knows he won't get), then accepts a Russian-brokered deal for Assad to surrender chemical weapons. The strike never comes.
Red Line Erased
The failure to enforce the red line becomes a defining moment. Supporters argue Obama avoided another Middle Eastern war. Critics argue it destroyed US credibility and emboldened Assad, Russia, and Iran. Assad continues using chemical weapons (chlorine, barrel bombs) with impunity. The red line becomes a punchline.
CIA Program: Timber Sycamore
The CIA launches Timber Sycamore — a covert program to arm and train "moderate" Syrian rebels. Cost: over $1 billion. Problem: many weapons end up with jihadist groups, including al-Nusra (al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate). Some CIA-armed groups fight DoD-armed groups. The program is a case study in the futility of proxy war.
ISIS Declares Caliphate
ISIS captures Mosul, Iraq, and declares a caliphate spanning Iraq and Syria. The group controls territory the size of the UK, with 8 million people under its rule. It is the direct consequence of the Iraq War's destruction of the Iraqi state and the Syrian civil war's power vacuum.
US Begins Bombing Syria
The US launches airstrikes against ISIS in Syria under Operation Inherent Resolve. No Congressional authorization. No UN resolution. The legal basis: the 2001 AUMF passed after 9/11 — used to justify bombing a group that didn't exist in 2001, in a country the AUMF never mentioned.
Russia Intervenes
Russia begins airstrikes in Syria — ostensibly against ISIS but primarily targeting anti-Assad rebels. Russia's intervention saves the Assad regime and establishes Russia as the dominant external power in Syria. The US is marginalized. Putin demonstrates that Russia can project power while the US dithers.
SDF Partnership & ISIS Campaign
The US partners with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), dominated by Kurdish YPG fighters. The SDF does the ground fighting; the US provides airstrikes, special forces advisors, and weapons. The campaign is effective — ISIS loses its territory. But Turkey considers the YPG a terrorist organization, creating an impossible contradiction.
Trump Strikes Assad
After another Assad chemical attack (Khan Shaykhun), Trump launches 59 Tomahawk missiles at a Syrian airbase. The base is operational again within hours. A second strike follows in April 2018 after the Douma chemical attack. Neither changes anything. Assad continues to use chemical weapons.
Turkey Invades, US Abandons Kurds
Trump abruptly withdraws US forces from the Turkish border. Turkey invades northeastern Syria, attacking SDF/Kurdish forces — America's allies who lost 11,000 fighters defeating ISIS. Kurdish fighters are killed, civilians displaced. The betrayal is bipartisan in its condemnation — and utterly predictable.
Frozen Conflict
Approximately 900 US troops remain in eastern Syria, guarding oil fields and maintaining the SDF partnership. Their mission is undefined. Their legal authority is questionable. They face occasional attacks from Iranian-backed militias. Another forever war with no end state.
The Players: Everyone Against Everyone
Syria became the most complex proxy war of the 21st century. At various points, the US was simultaneously fighting ISIS, supporting the Kurds (whom Turkey was fighting), arming rebels (some of whom fought other US-armed rebels), and avoiding conflict with Russia (which was bombing US-backed groups). It was chaos with a budget.
| Player | Backed By |
|---|---|
| Assad Regime | Russia, Iran, Hezbollah |
| ISIS | Self-funded (oil, looting, taxes) |
| SDF/YPG (Kurds) | United States |
| Turkey | NATO ally (nominal) |
| Free Syrian Army (remnants) | CIA, Gulf states, Turkey |
| Al-Nusra/HTS | Gulf donors, captured CIA weapons |
| Iran/Hezbollah | Iran |
| Russia | Self |
Key Figures
Drew a red line, then erased it. Launched the CIA proxy war and the anti-ISIS air campaign. Avoided the full-scale intervention hawks demanded but created a half-in, half-out commitment that satisfied no one.
Struck Assad twice (changed nothing), ended the CIA rebel program, and then betrayed the Kurds by greenlighting Turkey's invasion. Simultaneously maintained troops in Syria to "keep the oil" — a remarkably honest statement of imperial resource extraction.
Survived the civil war with Russian and Iranian help. Used chemical weapons multiple times with minimal consequences. His regime's barrel bombs and siege warfare killed far more civilians than ISIS.
Kurdish military leader who partnered with the US to defeat ISIS. Lost 11,000 SDF fighters in the campaign. Then watched the US abandon his forces to Turkish invasion. The human face of American betrayal.
Declared the caliphate in 2014. Killed in a US raid in 2019. A product of the Iraq War — he was radicalized in US detention at Camp Bucca. The ultimate blowback.
Editorial: The War Nobody Voted For
The US intervention in Syria was never authorized by Congress, never approved by the UN Security Council, and operates under a 2001 law that authorized force against the perpetrators of 9/11 — an event that preceded ISIS by over a decade. The legal basis for American presence in Syria is, to put it charitably, creative fiction.
Syria represents the final evolution of the forever war model. No declaration. No debate. No vote. No defined objective. No exit criteria. Just an open-ended military commitment that Congress prefers not to discuss because discussing it would require taking responsibility for it.
The CIA's Timber Sycamore program was perhaps the most absurd chapter: the CIA armed one set of rebels while the Pentagon armed another set, and the two groups fought each other. American taxpayers funded both sides of firefights in which no American interest was served. The program was eventually shut down — not because it was wasteful and counterproductive, but because Trump wanted to please Putin.
The betrayal of the Kurds — who lost 11,000 fighters defeating ISIS on America's behalf — was the most predictable tragedy. The Kurds have been betrayed by the US in 1975 (Iraq), 1991 (Iraq again), and 2019 (Syria). Henry Kissinger explained the pattern decades ago: “Covert action should not be confused with missionary work.” American allies are tools, not partners. When their usefulness ends, so does American loyalty.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much has the US spent on Syria?
US military operations in Syria have cost approximately $14.3 billion since 2014, including $8.5 billion for the anti-ISIS air campaign, $2.2 billion for train-and-equip programs, $2.1 billion for SDF support, and $1.5 billion in humanitarian aid. The CIA's Timber Sycamore program cost over $1 billion before being shut down. Costs continue with ~900 US troops still deployed.
Why did Obama not enforce the red line?
After Assad's Ghouta chemical attack in August 2013, Obama prepared military strikes but then sought Congressional authorization (knowing Congress would likely reject it), then accepted Russia's offer to broker Assad's chemical weapons surrender. The reasons: war-weary public, Congressional opposition, no UN authorization, and the Libya aftermath demonstrating the dangers of intervention. The result: a credibility crisis and continued chemical attacks.
What happened to the Syrian Kurds?
The Syrian Kurds (SDF/YPG) were America's most effective ground partner against ISIS, losing 11,000 fighters in the campaign. In October 2019, Trump withdrew US forces from the Turkish border, enabling Turkey to invade Kurdish-held territory. Kurdish fighters were killed, 300,000 civilians displaced, and ISIS prisoners nearly escaped. It was a betrayal that even Republican hawks condemned.
Are US troops still in Syria?
Yes. Approximately 900 US troops remain in eastern Syria, primarily at the al-Tanf garrison and in the SDF-controlled northeast. Their stated mission includes counter-ISIS operations, protecting oil fields, and supporting the SDF. Their legal authority is the 2001 AUMF — a law passed to fight al-Qaeda that is now used to justify indefinite presence in a country facing completely different threats. No exit strategy exists.
How many people died in the Syrian Civil War?
Over 500,000 people have been killed in the Syrian Civil War since 2011, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The conflict has created 6.8 million refugees (the largest refugee population in the world) and 6.9 million internally displaced persons. Half the pre-war population of 22 million has been displaced. The Assad regime is responsible for the majority of civilian deaths, primarily through barrel bombs, siege warfare, and chemical weapons.
Related Pages
Sources
- Department of Defense — Operation Inherent Resolve Cost Reports
- Congressional Research Service — Armed Conflict in Syria (2023)
- Syrian Observatory for Human Rights — Casualty Reports
- UNHCR — Syria Refugee Crisis Data
- The New York Times — “CIA Arms for Syrian Rebels” Investigation (2017)
- Inspector General — Operation Inherent Resolve Quarterly Reports
- The Atlantic — “The Obama Doctrine” (2016)